In a Daily Trust headline captioned, “My husband’s gov’t hijacked” – Aisha Buhari on Oct 15 2016, the wife of the president, Hajiya A’isha Buhari in an interview with British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) Hausa Service, voiced out concern for her husband’s leadership style, where she alleged that President Muhammadu Buhari is not in control of his administration, among other issues.
Again, in another report titled 2019 Election: APC splits into factions by Michael Abimboye, it was revealed that Major forces within the All Progressives Congress (APC) have splited the party into three major factions ahead of the 2019 election; Bola Tinubu camp, Abuja group and Buhari loyalists as the various camps checkmate each other over who controls the party.
All these signal points to the fact that, All is not well with the ruling party.
The latest news now flying hay wire in the social media is that there is an additional faction making four. They are: a) The Aso Rock Cabal Camp (ARC) b) The Buhari Political Friends Camp (BPF) c) The Bola Ahmed Tinubu Camp (BAT) d) The Bukola Saraki Camp (BS)
- a) The Aso Rock Cabal Camp (ARC) currently is about the most powerful of all the four camps. The reason this camp is the most powerful is that they are the family members of the President. The President is loyal to them. The President do not question their decisions. They determine who sees the President and who gets the favours of and from the President. This group is led by Mamman Daura, the invisible visible hand who is actually doing the governing of this country in practical terms. They are so powerful that they sent out the First Lady, Hajia Aisha Buhari out of United Kingdom, away from her sickly husband and she could not bat an eyelid.
For the ARC, the fear of Bola Tinubu is the beginning of wisdom. This camp lives in perpetual fear of Bola Tinubu and is ready to go to any length to emasculate him. The members believe that Tinubu has to be rendered ineffectual by all means, especially with eyes on 2019. For this reason, they are keeping more than an eye on Vice President Yemi Osinbajo. They are praying that President Buhari does not give up the ghost for obvious reasons. The ARC has made an alliance with Senator Bukola Saraki. And they are bent on convincing the President to come out for him and support him publicly regardless of the cost to the faked integrity of the President. President trusts the ARC more than any group. The DSS already told Nigerians that Senator Saraki is “not corrupt.” The ARC hates Ibrahim Magu, the acting chairman of the EFCC, with passion. That passion could only be matched by Senator Saraki who has been humiliated repeatedly by Magu. They have common interest to see that Magu never emerges as the de facto and de jure chair of the EFCC. The need to keep Bola Tinubu ineffectual is another common interest between the ARC and the BS camp.
- b) The Buhari Political Friends Camp (BPF). These are political friends of Buhari who are considered no threat to the control of the presidency by the ARC. They are largely tolerated and allowed their space to do what they wanted to do as long as they understood their boundaries. This group have no influence whatsoever on the President. The president does not show any dislike for them but he is in no way committed to any of them. He has not expressed any form of lack of confidence in them but has not expressly showed any form of confidence in them. Most of them are ministers. This group is secretly interested in clipping the wings of BAT camp but is not openly expressing that desire. This has put them in the good book of the ARC. For those of them that are of Yoruba extraction, they are in a quandary. They have no choice but to tread carefully because the Yoruba consensus now is that Bola Tinubu should not be allowed to be humiliated by the ARC and others gunning for him.
It is not clear if this current protective support of Bola Tinubu by the Yoruba leadership would translate to votes in 2019 across Yoruba land, but it would be better to allow time to tell, as things continue to unravel.
- c) The Bola Ahmed Tinubu Camp is arguably the smartest but currently the weakest of all the groups. This camp has been suffering from lack of vision and proper planning and is paying dearly for it. In the days leading to the election, the leadership of the group failed to pay attention to a lot of pointers showing them that the group could be at risk in a Buhari administration. Right now, the leadership of the group is playing “good boy” to the administration as much as it could. It recognizes the threat of ARC and it is not willing to dare the cabal. This group is compelled to show its loyalty to the President at all times even in absurd situations such as the killing of the Yoruba people in Ile-Ife in Osun State. Even when one of the leading members of this group, Senator Ali Ndume was suspended from the Senate by the Saraki camp, there was not a whimper from any other member of the group or its leadership. The leadership of this group is busy trying to save itself and its political relevance
This group has been on a losing spree since Buhari took over power despite its enormous contribution to installing this administration. It lost the Senate Presidency to its rival Saraki camp that described the Vice President Osinbajo as an “ordinary commissioner.” It lost many of the principal positions in the Senate and has been reduced to spectators in the body.
The group also suffered the same fate in the Lower House as all its candidates were left in the rain soaked without recourse. It won some negligible principal positions in the lower chamber and that was it. The lower house is more loyal to the Saraki camp without any question and the leadership of that arm of the government is working with the ARC too as an extended arm of the Saraki camp.
Even in the appointment of Ministers, many nominees of the group often hit the swimming pool with their clothes on. They could not be considered seriously because of the stance of ARC against the leader of this group. This group also seems to have become an albatross on the neck of Ibrahim Magu because of its support for the EFCC acting chairman. The Saraki camp and the ARC seemed to believe that Magu is a pawn in the playbook of Bola Tinubu and are determined to frustrate him.
It is however believed that this group could bounce back in 2019. How this would turn out is not clear yet as Bola Tinubu works with Afenifere leadership and some Yoruba Obas. But the question is whether Tinubu’s judgment could be trusted again.
- d) The Bukola Saraki camp in comparison to the ARC may not appear to be the strongest of all the groups, but without any question, it seems to be the most formidable of all. It is the only camp that has a leg in every group except the BAT camp. It is amazing that despite the media war against him, he has been able to survive, resurge, recalibrate and realign his forces to become more formidable than he was at the beginning of Buhari’s administration.
Saraki firmly in control of the Senate, he has the power to do a few things to Buhari. But he did not. Rather he went for the soft spot of Buhari and hemmed in. He came out with an alliance with ARC. Meanwhile, he was carrying the Speaker of the House along with him and they became a formidable force together. The members of the BPF, mostly Ministers, would not do anything to antagonize the Senate leader otherwise the budget of their Ministries could be in jeopardy. They know where their bread is buttered so they could also help themselves while the parody lasts. Other variables in the staying power of Saraki, is the silent but very effective and strong support of the Northern Emirs across the board. They do not consider him corrupt. He takes care of them. They had supported him from the beginning and were instrumental to his becoming the Senate president. There are also other party big wigs silent but in active support of Saraki. They are operating from behind the scenes. The way Saraki has been able to hold everything together, so far, explains why he has been so strong in Kwara state for so long.
While the BAT group still has the loyalty of some Northern political big wigs, it is difficult to gauge their political value as of now. Things would become clearer as events unfold. Many believe that it would be unwise to write off the BAT group as a factor in 2019.
